Agricultural
21 May, 2026
Drought management top of mind for local farmers
"Tough Decisions": local stock and station agent, Paul Alchin, on Gilgandra’s Rapid Seasonal Shift
In the livestock industry, timing is everything. For Paul Alchin of Alchin Ag Pty Ltd Stock and Station and Real Estate Agency, the current drying trend in the Gilgandra district is a reminder of how quickly "safe" country can feel the pinch.
While the region has faced dry spells before, Paul notes that the current decline has arrived with surprising speed. "We seem to have arrived there much quicker now than what we did in previous droughts," he says. Despite the rain early this week, "It seems to have come on us much quicker."
The transition started roughly a year ago, but the real pressure mounted as the subsoil moisture—built up during the autumn and winter of 2023—was exhausted.
"By the time we got to August and into September when it started to warm again, then our feed reserves and our crops really started to feel the pinch. We haven't had any decent runoff now for close to two years, and so our water reserves have disappeared altogether on us."
While Gilgandra is fortunate to have access to underground water, Paul points out that it isn't a silver bullet. "That comes at a cost, and it's also a limited supply. The water side of it and feed combination... yeah, it's caused a big sell-off."
Late last year, producers were able to take advantage of a strong market to trim their numbers. At that stage, the sales were strategic. However, as the dry has deepened over the last three months, the nature of the "sell-off" has changed.
"Those core flocks or core mobs with our cattle and our sheep and lambs, that we're hoping to be kept, are now being sold as well. The supply is being almost forced onto the market by the seasonal conditions rather than being drawn out by price or under normal management."
For many mixed farmers, the decision to feed through a dry patch or sell down the herd is a heavy one. Paul observes that the financial memory of 2018–19 is playing a major role in today’s decision-making.
"I honestly think that people are still recovering from some very, very, very big feed bills back from there. I think probably the pendulum has swung towards selling rather than feeding at the moment. You've got to draw a line somewhere."
Even in a difficult season, Paul sees his clients’ using data and modern management to navigate the challenge. Whether it’s selling dry ewes to prioritize fertile "multiples" or opting for a lower-maintenance "single-lamb" flock, there is no simple right answer—only what fits the farm.
"There's no right or wrong, but it's just what suits your management... Gilgandra is a very safe mixed farming area, and it's very rare that we would miss a crop altogether. But, without being a pessimist, it is worrying and it is shaping that that could be the case."
Despite the concern, the mood remains one of pragmatic action. Whether it’s finding a "win" in rising grain prices for those with stored reserves or making the call to destock early, the producers of Gilgandra are proving that while they can't control the rain, they are certainly in control of their response.
