Agricultural
25 April, 2025
Beef and wool bright spots in April ag outlook
Australian beef and wool producers are heading into April with cautious optimism, according to Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ monthly commodity update.
While dry conditions and trade shifts are challenging parts of the sector, beef exports remain resilient, wool prices are lifting, and dairy and lamb markets are showing signs of strength. However, grain growers remain wary of rainfall shortfalls and delays in seeding windows.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness’ Senior Manager of Industry Affairs, Neil Burgess, said the recent introduction of a 10 per cent US tariff is not expected to significantly impact Australian beef exports.
Volumes to the US remain strong, limited more by processing capacity than by demand. Domestic prices have risen modestly, with the National Young Cattle Indicator peaking at 371c/kg in March, though still below the five-year average.
Wool has been a standout performer, with the AWEX EMI rising in five of the past six weeks, now sitting at 1,249c/kg — up 9.4 per cent year-on-year. Steady supply and a slightly weaker Australian dollar have supported pricing, despite looming global trade uncertainties.
In cropping, early-season barley and canola exports are ahead of pace, but wheat remains sluggish due to reduced demand from China and domestic oversupply. Conditions across southern cropping regions remain critically dry, making April and May rainfall vital for winter planting.
Delayed seeding or dry sowing could pose risks to production and pricing.
The dairy sector has seen modest price increases, with processors like Burra and Lactalis offering step-ups.
However, milk production is down nearly five per cent year-on-year, largely due to dry conditions in Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania. National production is expected to remain slightly below last season’s levels.
Horticulture producers, particularly in Queensland, are dealing with waterlogged paddocks and planting delays. Vegetable availability may tighten in the coming months, while wholesale fruit and veg prices have climbed due to supply chain disruptions.
Lamb prices remain relatively stable, with the National Trade Lamb Indicator sitting at 803c/kg. Strong processing capacity is offsetting dry conditions in key producing regions. Supply is expected to tighten by mid-year, supporting prices even as the market adjusts to US trade tariffs. Emissions from the red meat sector have dropped 78 per cent since 2005, with major investments supporting sustainability and productivity. Overall, the April outlook reflects a mixed bag across commodities, with strong export demand and stable prices in some areas, and weather-driven uncertainty looming large for others.
